Saturday, April 25, 2015

Phillip Inman — What happens if Greece can’t pay its debts?


The nub of it. Keynes and Post-Keynesianism versus Chicago and Neoliberalism.
The former economics professor, now finance minister, went into Friday’s meeting of eurozone colleagues in Riga repeating his demand that his counterparts admit that their policies towards Greece, Ireland, Portugal and the rest have failed. It is not a message that wins many friends. In Riga he faced a volley of criticism for his repeated expounding of Keynesian economics, with its emphasis on government spending. His opposite numbers find it childish and patronising. They understand Keynesianism, but don’t think it works. Varoufakis admits he is adverse to the compromises familiar to diplomats and politicians, and many think that rather than be responsible for a fudge he would prefer to go down in flames.
The problem is a combination of ideology and innumeracy on the part of the neoliberals. That's a fatal combination. Fail.

The Guardian
What happens if Greece can’t pay its debts?
Phillip Inman
h/t Clonal

See also
It looks like this is more about him breaking the rules of a fraternity than about seriously coming to an agreement that most observers think is not that far away. Time for these clowns to grow up.
Econospeak

12 comments:

Kristjan said...

Well, this is getting old, Varoufakis is a clown like the rest of Syriza. They have no plan how to manage Greek economy. Varoufakis probably thinks that It was much easier to criticise with no power than to do anything. These people cannot do it even if they had their own currency. They are idealists and conditions for them to govern are never idealistic. They can write books, hold conferences etc, but they are not able to govern a country. That is why they need IMF, European Commission, ECB, they need someone to tell them what to do. They are not happy most of the time what they are told to do but they cannot do it themselves. it is not only them, there are a lot of people like this. Most people don't want to be CEOs of a company, they just don't like the responsibility.

Tom Hickey said...

I don't see it that way at all, Kristjan. Varoufakis has provided several scenarios that would stave off default, give Greece a shot at reforming itself within the EZ and taking Grexit off the table. The neoliberals have countered with a rigid stance whose numbers don't add up and Varoufakis has pointed out to them how that is so.

Now the question is whether Greece can implement and carry through the plan that Varoufakis has put forward. that remains to be seen, but Greece would have to be given a shot at it. In contrast, the prescribed austerity is doomed fail, leaving Greece a failed state and an eventual Grexit.

If that would happen, Greece could leave the EU-NATO orbit and turn East, a signal that Tsipras's trip to Moscow was designed in part to send.

NeilW said...

I'm just wondering at what point this 'terribly reasonable' stand ends and the Greek government takes unilateral action?

Ignacio said...
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Ignacio said...

Current Syriza govt. are time wasters Tom, they are now being more harmful to their own people than the Troika right now due to their inaction and 'negotiations', and they are amateurs as the Grinch Schauble says (even if he is also an amateur and a psycho). They are losign support nationally and outside (where they just look like a bunch of desperate clueless incompetent rulers).

Question is if there is anyone competent after all there to run a damn country. If there isn't a military coup will happen and a dictatorship established until they can sort themselves out. It looks more and more like your typical south-american banana republic. No ideas, no competence, no future.

All that lust for power, to not know what to do with it afterwards. Where are the Alexander the Great of our era, it's pathetic how mediocre our elites are. Terrible.

Unknown said...

The idea that Greece can somehow turn its great depression economy around in any time period short of decades with-out the massive spending and income injections that comes from deficit spending is not realistic.

I mean, we're are not talking about 10% unemployment, more like 30-40% real unemployment, its a humanitarian disaster and like with all humanitarian disasters, the ability of the private sector with only its profit motive as a driving factor to fix said disaster is non-existent.

Syriza is seriously wasting precious time and more human suffering all in an attempt to do a fiscal consolidation that is less hurtful than the troika wants.

In this sense, Syriza is no different than Dems here in the States. Both Dems and Syriza think its necessary and important to shrink deficits, they just want more tax increases and different types of spending cuts than the mainstream. Dems are not the answer currently and neither is Syriza

Kristjan said...

Tom wrote: "The neoliberals have countered with a rigid stance whose numbers don't add up and Varoufakis has pointed out to them how that is so."

So have you, so has Warren Mosler etc. Now what? Keep pointing it out?

Tom Hickey said...

The situation is no longer economic. It is political

The decision is now up to Angela Merkel, since Syriza has decided that it doesn't have the political capital to unilaterally withdraw from the EZ.

The eurocrats are not going to shift position unless Merkel orders them to, and Syriza is not going to voluntarily leave the EZ unless the political climate in Greece would indicate substantial popular support for that.

Kristjan said...
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Kristjan said...

"The situation is no longer economic. It is political

The decision is now up to Angela Merkel, since Syriza has decided that it doesn't have the political capital to unilaterally withdraw from the EZ.

The eurocrats are not going to shift position unless Merkel orders them to, and Syriza is not going to voluntarily leave the EZ unless the political climate in Greece would indicate substantial popular support for that."



It is always political. So what you are saying is that Greece is taking orders from Merkel too. Yes, so It was before Syriza also. All these people have done so far is talking, end austerity. To be honest with you, It is not acceptable to me either that whatever institution in EU "prints money" for Greece and they just spend, and they decide what they want to spend It on. That definitely doesn't work at all. This set up is wrong but the left doesn't want to face It, I am not talking about Syriza only. Yes, they don't have the political support to leave euro. What else is new. The left everywhere keeps talking that austerity needs to end, yet even in Estonia they say euro is our money. How are you going to end It without losing national sovereignity? Let them do their empty talk. May be this requires radical people like Le Pen, she is saying that first thing she would do is order treasury and central bank to start issuing franks again. Thios is not politically correct, "we don't need nationalism in Europe, Europe needs to be reformed". Let Varoufaklis reform it :)

Kristjan said...

And one thing that I learned from this Syriza deal: you should not vote for the left, they do nothing. They hide themselves behind progressive terms and do a lot of empty talk. You are out of political mainstream pretty much in Europe if you say: let's get rid of euro. You are even considered radical. So it is time to vote for radicals, Syriza is only labeled as radical, I don't see anything radical in them.

Tom Hickey said...

Theses why the pendulum swings between left and right. The left can't get it together (often due to opposition of the right) and the right generally overreachs, eventually generating a reaction that brings the left back.

But liberal democracy based on economic liberalism favors the right, since it pretty much guarantees that status, power and wealth are class-based with those that own the country governing the country. The problem lies with them as a result.

Merkel has to decide based on the wishes of TPTB but with an eye to the electorate, too. So the solution is to demonize the lazy Greeks so the German voters don't go all populist.

Populism rises therefore on the right. If TPTB stoke nationalism politically through propaganda, then they populist nationalism in the end. But TPTB can make use of any situation that arises because they hold the levers of power through thick and thin.